MANILA – The Philippines will remain highly resilient to external shocks despite heightened uncertainties stemming from changes in United States tariff policies, the Japan Credit Rating Agency Ltd. (JCR) said.
In its latest report, JCR cited the country’s resilience to external shocks, supported by accumulated foreign exchange reserves.
“Given its solid foreign currency liquidity position, JCR believes that the Philippines will remain highly resilient to external shocks despite increased uncertainties caused by changes in the US tariff policies,” JCR said.
As of end-September 2026, the country’s foreign exchange reserves were at USD99.5 billion, enough to cover 6.2 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income, well above the international benchmark of three months.
The reserves were also 3.1 times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual maturity.
JCR said the resilience is also supported by relatively limited exposure of the country’s exports to the United States.
In terms of economic growth, JCR expects a rebound over the medium term.
For this year alone, JCR said public infrastructure investment will likely recover in the second half while price stabilization policies will also take effect, helping boost economic growth to a mid-3 percent level.
“Meanwhile, public infrastructure spending is expected to rebound in the
second half of 2026 due to the execution of already allocated budgets and the resumption of projects for which the review process has been completed,” it said.
In a separate statement, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) welcomed JCR’s favorable assessment of the Philippines’ external position.
“JCR’s recognition of the country’s strong external buffers reflects confidence in the Philippine economy’s ability to weather global headwinds, including those arising from the Middle East conflict,” BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. said.
“The BSP will continue to manage the country’s foreign exchange reserves prudently to help safeguard economic stability,” he added.
The favorable assessment complements JCR’s decision on Aug. 28 to affirm the Philippines’ investment-grade credit rating of “A-” with a “stable” outlook.
An issuer report provides additional analysis and context behind a sovereign credit rating action. (Ana Leah Gonzales/PNA)
