Pulse Asia addressed the perceived discrepancy between its final pre-election survey and the partial results of the midterm elections, where Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan, and Rodante Marcoleta showed stronger-than-expected performances and were likely to secure seats in the Senate.
Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes explained that their survey was conducted from April 20 to 24—three weeks before the May 12 elections. He noted that at that point, Aquino was still in contention, Pangilinan had declined, and Marcoleta had already fallen out of the “Magic 12.”
“But again, that’s three weeks before the campaign, the end of the election on election day,” Holmes said.
He pointed out that there was a noticeable decline in “fill-up rates” during the April survey, suggesting that voters were still finalizing their choices. Holmes said this often leads to voters adding more names to their list closer to or on election day.
“That means that there’s a probability in these cases that they will swing back and probably elect more… eventually added names to those that they initially signified preference for,” he said.
Holmes cited endorsements and intensified campaign efforts during the final weeks as factors that could have shifted voter preferences.
“Of course, it does not explain why Bam Aquino or Kiko Pangilinan… are at the top of top six, but it explains why there are people who were in the upper half or even in the bottom six of our April survey that eventually slid down,” he added.
He also said that voter turnout could further clarify the gap, and Pulse Asia will analyze the data by region once official numbers are available. However, demographic disaggregation such as age is not possible with current election results.
Holmes acknowledged the need to review Pulse Asia’s methodology:
“If we were off, then we will admit we were off… even if necessary, then we will take on some of our colleagues in the social sciences and do an independent review of our sampling design or our methodology.”
He emphasized that no survey is perfect and said:
“The only predictive survey is really the exit poll. Kung nagkamali ka sa exit poll, yun ang malaking problema.”