The Philippines may see significantly softer fuel prices next year, but energy officials warn the road toward cheaper oil will not be smooth as geopolitical flashpoints continue to rattle global supply lines.
According to the Department of Energy (DOE), early assessments from major international energy monitors point to a surplus of crude beginning in the first quarter of 2026—a scenario that typically drives prices downward. Rino Abad, director of the DOE’s Oil Industry Management Bureau, said both the International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration now forecast an unmistakable oversupply trend.
Abad told PTV that the alignment of projections from the two agencies strengthens expectations of a downward movement. He added that conditions are shaping up for an environment where supply is likely to outpace demand, easing market pressures that have kept prices elevated through much of the year.
However, the optimism ends there. Abad stressed that ongoing geopolitical tensions threaten to disrupt the trend at any moment. He pointed to the war in Ukraine, particularly the continuing US and European sanctions that keep an estimated 1.4 million barrels per day of Russian oil from freely entering the market. Analysts from JP Morgan Chase warn that these constraints could limit how far global prices actually fall.
On the other side of the world, Venezuela’s unstable political and diplomatic situation is also keeping the industry on edge. With the country producing around 1.1 million barrels per day, Abad noted that the market still has no clear picture of how much of this output may be affected by unsettled relations with the United States.
Abad described both issues as potential spoilers that could interrupt or dull the impact of any oversupply. He said that while the Philippines is likely to benefit from lower oil costs next year, industry planners are not expecting a sustained or uninterrupted decline.
The latest weekly adjustments reflect this complex environment. Oil firms implemented a price increase on gasoline starting December 9, while the cost of diesel and kerosene held steady, underscoring how global uncertainty continues to shape domestic pump prices.
