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Five years after Myanmar’s military seized power, predictions of its collapse fade. What once looked like a regime in terminal decline now appears more stable, even as the country remains locked in a brutal civil war.
Analysts say the Tatmadaw has moved past the wave of pessimism that followed heavy battlefield losses in late 2023. Over the past year, the military retakes strategic towns and trade corridors in the northeast, rebuilds depleted units, and stages tightly managed elections that wrap up in January.
Security specialists describe this as the junta’s strongest position since the coup. While far from decisive control, the military stabilizes front lines and restores enough capacity to blunt resistance advances.
Much of that recovery traces back to foreign backing, especially from China. After initially balancing ties with both the military and ethnic armed groups, Beijing pivots sharply toward the junta following rebel gains near its border, pressing militias to stand down and tightening economic pressure.
Russia also plays a role, providing training, coordination support, and technology. Improved tactics, better joint operations, and expanded use of drones narrow advantages once held by resistance forces, while a sweeping conscription drive injects tens of thousands of new troops into the ranks.
Yet the violence shows no sign of ending. Casualties and displacement continue to mount, clashes remain frequent, and reports of mass-casualty attacks on civilians persist. The military still controls less than half the country, cancels voting in contested areas, and faces widespread rejection of its election results abroad.
Resistance groups, though fragmented, adapt rather than collapse. New alliances form, coordination improves, and attacks stretch beyond ethnic borderlands into central Myanmar. With neither side willing to negotiate, the coming year hinges on whether the opposition can unify faster than the generals consolidate—and how far external backers are willing to go to keep the junta afloat.
