The Philippine economy is projected to stay resilient despite weaker performance in the first half of 2025 and external headwinds, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Wednesday.
In a briefing at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, IMF Mission Chief Eli Arbatli Saxegaard said the country’s economy is expected to grow 5.4 percent in 2025 and 5.7 percent in 2026, slightly lower than earlier forecasts of 5.5 percent and 5.9 percent.
“The revision reflects factors related to the first half performance, which was weaker than expected,” Saxegaard said, noting that higher US tariffs on Philippine exports will weigh on trade and investments.
Still, she stressed that “the Philippine economy has achieved successful disinflation, and growth remains resilient despite negative external spillovers.”
The IMF cited monetary easing, legislative reforms, and private investments as key growth drivers. Saxegaard added that the Philippines holds “significant potential” due to its young population and abundant resources, but effective implementation of infrastructure and investment reforms remains crucial.
The IMF also urged the government to push for deeper trade agreements, stronger fiscal governance, reduced corruption risks, and enhanced social protection programs. Reforms in digitalization, climate resilience, and tax measures such as excise taxes on sugary drinks and unhealthy food were also recommended to boost revenues.
Risks to the outlook include global trade uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, volatile financial markets, and climate shocks. On the other hand, faster structural reforms would improve investor confidence and long-term growth prospects.
Inflation is expected to average 1.5 percent in 2025, according to the IMF.
