“A thousand friends are too few. One enemy is too many.” —Indonesian proverb
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The Philippines shares with the rest of the world its biggest problem in recent history —where to buy or get the oil that the economy needs for its survival.
This problem can be traced to the Marcos administration’s inability to provide fuel reserves for the nation, one that could withstand unexpected disruption like the war in West Asia, a war chosen and decided only by US President Donald Trump and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
When the war came, the country was exposed to unimaginable risks. With oil stock in the hands of the private sector, and lasting only for 15 to 20 days, the Philippines had to turn to allies and neighbors for the needed aid.
With the Iran conflict still unresolved and the Strait of Hormuz a risky passageway for our oil imports, the Philippines is constrained to look for alternative sources of oil which is the single most important commodity these days.
Russia may be a willing friend to help, as it has already provided some 2.48 million barrels of Russian crude oil to Petron Corp., the country’s only petroleum refinery, last March 30. This order must have been made even before the oil price shock as a result of the Feb. 28 attacks by US-Israel against Iran. This stock will mitigate local fuel shortages and secure supply for the country until June.
The problem with crude from Russia is that Manila need to acquire a waiver from US sanctions against Russian oil, a direct result of the war in Ukraine. Without it, local corporations like Petron would not be able to purchase the commodity.
China, too, is a likely source of emergency oil assistance for the Philippines.
While Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan assured the government that China’s doors are open to help the PHL and other ASEAN members meet their energy needs, China itself is conserving its oil reserves and thus, had to adopt the policy of cutting fuel exports to other countries since the start of the Ramadan war.
With its economic health and survival at stake for the rest of the year, any observer would think that the Philippines will try to please the Chinese and convince them to open their charitable window a little bit wider and provide the country will the badly needed emergency relief.
But instead of doing this, days after the request was sent, the Philippines started the 41st iteration of Balikatan Exercise 2026, the largest annual bilateral exercise conducted between the US and PHL. The war games were even expanded this year with Australia, Japan, Canada, France and New Zealand participating — all allies of America.
It is out in the open that the US is preparing its military, and the military institutions and facilities of its allies, to counter any possible confrontation with China over Taiwan or the South China Sea.
The venues of the war games are concentrated in Luzon, a few nautical miles from Taiwan, and near Palawan in the general vicinity of the South China Sea islands jointly claimed by China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brunei.
Needless to say, it does not bode well to conduct the Balikatan at this time when the country is practically begging China for oil, gas, and energy assistance.
People’s Daily commentary
It was reported by Reuters that the Chinese Communist Party’s official People’s Daily showed Beijing’s readiness to leverage its reserves in diplomatic disputes.
In an editorial headlined “The Philippines should create conditions for deepening cooperation,” the newspaper accused the Philippines of hypocrisy for seeking the emergency supplies days before hosting annual drills involving more than 17,000 troops near Taiwan.
“These blatantly contradictory words and deeds expose the opportunistic nature of Philippine politicians,” the commentary said, published under the pen name “Zhong Sheng,” meaning “Voice of China”, and commonly used to convey top officials’ views on foreign policy.
“How can (the Philippines) justify acting with complete disregard for the interests of its neighbors and yet expect them to come to its aid in a critical moment?”, the commentary continued, calling on Manila to “create the right conditions” for improved two-way ties.
Another case in point
It may be pointed out that Philippine foreign policy under Marcos tends to inflict pain on Filipino diplomats who, following orders from President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., find it doubly hard to fulfill their work for the benefit of Filipinos.
This relates to Marcos’ order to resume negotiations with China on the possibility of jointly developing oil and gas resources below the Reed Bank, a place not within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and still contested by the two countries.
As if on cue from the Americans, the United States’ propaganda cabal in Manila immediately struck down the plan, saying PHL sovereignty cannot be compromised, when sovereignty itself is absent in the said place.
The Stratbase Institute, Jay Tarriela, Antonio Carpio, Rafael Alunan, Francis Pangilinan, JV Ejercito, Risa Hontiveros and others are narrow-minded enough to side with Ambassador Teddyboy Locsin who cut all oil talks with China in the ending days of the Duterte administration, when he was DFA secretary.
Malacañang Palace should take the lead in pressuring and/or influencing these people to toe the line, as the President has already announced that oil exploration talks with China should resume.
Ambassador Quan has even welcomed the idea, saying that had we began exploring for oil in the Reed Bank or anywhere in the contested parts of the SCS, the Philippines would have been benefiting from the flow of oil and gas by now.
Quan said if we begin exploration today, the Philippines and China will jointly benefit from the partnership in three years, at the most.
Ex-diplomats air their position
They are retired diplomats, ambassadors and consuls who have dedicated their lives in the service of the country, although most of the time, abroad . They represented the Philippines and worked for the interest of Filipinos all over the world, and in their decades of experience in diplomacy, what they have to say about PHL foreign policy at this time should at least merit presidential attention.
Recently, this group of 11, then 13 ex-diplomats came out with a paper that urges the Marcos administration to emulate the tactics made by Indonesia and Vietnam in the conduct of its foreign policy, specifically about the South China Sea. It should be noted that both Indonesia and Vietnam have stakes in the SCS.
In summary, the former foreign service officers propose that Marcos must build a credible military deterrent while engaging Beijing in pragmatic diplomacy instead of relying too much on the United States. They wanted balance in our foreign policy.
They also backed the idea of a joint oil and gas exploration with China, particularly in the Reed Bank of the SCS. They made their position known days after Manila and Beijing resumed bilateral consultations in Quanzhou City on March 27-28.
