The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
has forecasted that a very strong El Niño event is likely to emerge between September and December 2026 and may continue until the first half of 2027.
According to the state weather bureau’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis, based on climate models and evaluations, El Niño may intensify into a “very strong” phenomenon between the months of September and December.
“Now El Niño is strong, and it could continue until the first half of 2027 and a very strong El Niño is likely to emerge during the September-October-November (and) October-November-December seasons,” Solis clarified during the agency’s climate forum.
She cited that as of September 21, dry conditions, dry spells, and drought are already affecting several areas in the country amid the presence of a strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific.
She numerated the affected areas as:
(For dry spells)
Luzon – Masbate and Sorsogon
Visayas – Negros Occidental
Mindanao – Agusan del Sur, Davao City, Davao del Norte, Lanao del Norte, Sarangani, Sultan Kudarat and Surigao del Sur;
(For droughts)
Visayas – Biliran, Bohol, Capiz, Cebu, Eastern Samar, Leyte, Northern Samar, and Southern Leyte
Mindanao – Agusan del Norte, Basilan, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Cotabato (North Cotabato), Davao de Oro, Davao del Sur, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, Dinagat Islands, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao del Sur, Misamis Oriental, South Cotabato, Suli, Surigao del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, and Zamboanga Sibugay;
(For low rainfall)
Luzon – Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and Quirino
Visayas – Negros Oriental, Samar, and Siquijor.
Solis said the impact of a very strong El Niño phenomenon may cause hotter temperatures and a significant reduction in rainfall in the country.
“This means there could be complications or severe consequences. Essentially, there is a higher probability that we will experience the impact, specifically a significant reduction in rainfall and hotter temperatures. Consequently, our agriculture could be affected,” she noted.
Solis likewise disclosed that by the end of December, many areas may experience dry conditions and a significant reduction in rainfall.
“Rainfall deficits have already been observed in 45 provinces in the country as of September. By the end of December, we foresee an increase in areas experiencing dry conditions. There are additional areas that will be seeing a significant reduction in rainfall,” the weather official concluded.
