Agriculture spokesperson Arnel De Mesa warns about upcoming El Niño at the Kapihan ng Samahang Plaridel. At his right is veteran journalist Twinkle Valdez.
With high fuel prices driving up farm input and production costs, Department of Agriculture (DA) spokesperson, Assistant Secretary Arnel De Mesa, enthused that preparedness is the key to ensuring food security for the country.
Soeaking at the Kapihan ng Samahang Plaridel at the Rizal Park Hotel in Manila, DE Mesa announced that as of now, there is a stable supply of agricultural product but he cautioned against the possibility of a “super” El Niño that could impact the agriculture sector towards the end of the year.
Prior to this, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. had warned that “(the situation) is no longer a question whether we will experience another El Niño after the 2024 episode that undermined rice harvest—the only question that needs to be answered is its intensity.”
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), there is a 92-percent probability of a moderate to strong El Niño occurring in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Citing this, Philippine Rice Research Institute (PRRI) executive director John De Leon noted that some global climate models even point to a potential “super” El Niño with projected warming of that could reach to about 2.2 degrees Celsius.
“This scenario could significantly reduce rainfall and strain water resources across key agricultural areas,” De Mesa reacted.
However, despite the forecast, he pointed out that with projections still indicating a moderate to strong El Niño phenomenon, they have already directed the managers of the DA’s Masagana Rice Industry Development Program to prepare for worst-case scenarios.
“This will include shifting to less water-intensive crops such as mung beans, adjusting planting calendars and accelerating the rollout of solar-powered irrigation systems,” he disclosed.
He likewise announced that the DA is also coordinating with the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) to optimize water allocation and ensure the readiness of irrigation systems to support farmers during prolonged dry spells.
Currently, agriculture officials are reviewing rainfall projections and water availability to recalibrate planting strategies and mitigate risks. Based on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority, the country’s agriculture sector decreased by 2.2 percent to ₱483.58 billion in 2024.
The DA and industry stakeholders attributed the sector’s dismal performance to the El Niño phenomenon, a series of typhoons and the prevalence of animal diseases. Moreover, the agriculture sector incurred ₱57.78 billion in damage in 2024, surging by 136.4 percent, one of the biggest losses sustained by the sector.