The Philippine economy likely gained stronger momentum in the third quarter of 2025, expanding by an estimated 5.9 percent year-on-year, according to Moody’s Analytics. This marks an improvement from the 5.5 percent growth posted in the June quarter, signaling a sustained recovery amid easing inflation and improving domestic demand.
Moody’s Analytics said the pickup in growth was largely driven by robust household consumption, buoyed by lower borrowing costs, healthy remittance inflows, and relatively subdued price pressures. These factors combined to support consumer spending, which remains the backbone of the Philippine economy.
The report noted that the external sector also contributed positively, as exports held up well through July and August despite global uncertainties. Meanwhile, private investment activity has been gradually improving alongside government efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending.
In contrast, neighboring Indonesia’s economy is expected to have grown by 4.8 percent in the same period, down from 5.1 percent in the previous quarter, as earlier gains from front-loaded exports to the United States began to wane.
Across the region, Moody’s Analytics said Asia’s growth outlook remains resilient but uneven, with domestic consumption acting as a key stabilizer amid ongoing global trade tensions and policy shifts in major economies.
The stronger Philippine performance comes as monetary easing continues to filter through the system. With inflation trending lower and credit conditions improving, analysts expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to maintain a supportive stance to sustain growth in the coming quarters.
If confirmed by official data, the 5.9 percent third-quarter expansion would place the Philippines among the region’s better-performing economies, underscoring the resilience of its consumer-driven growth model despite global headwinds.