Sacks of rice being sold under the “Benteng Bigas Meron (BBM) Na!” program at a Kadiwa ng Pangulo store in Quezon City on July 31, 2025. Rice inflation is expected to remain on downtrend and contribute to the manageable inflation rate in the Philippines, which decelerated to 0.9 percent in July 2025, based on the report by the Philippine Statistics Authority on Tuesday (Aug. 5, 2025). (PNA file photo by Ben Briones)
Filipinos got a rare dose of relief in July 2025, as the country’s inflation rate cooled to just 0.9 percent, its lowest level in almost six years. The last time inflation was this low was in October 2019, when it dipped to 0.6 percent.
The slowdown from June’s 1.4 percent was largely driven by cheaper electricity rates and falling prices of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). But it wasn’t just utilities—prices of food staples like rice, vegetables, and cooking bananas also eased, helping stretch household budgets.
According to National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa, this downtrend is expected to continue, particularly for rice, even amid debates about halting importation and raising tariffs.
“The expectation is negative average rice inflation for the whole year,” Mapa said in a mix of Filipino and English during a press briefing.
Rice import strategy pays off
Rice inflation has dropped significantly—from a painful 14.7 percent in August 2024 to just 0.8 percent in December, and into negative territory in recent months. This was largely due to a government decision to temporarily cut rice import tariffs from 35 percent to 15 percent and ramp up supply.
Despite calls to reintroduce higher tariffs to protect local farmers, the current policy appears to be shielding Filipino consumers from global rice price shocks—for now.
A win for low-income families
Perhaps the most heartening development came from the inflation rate for the country’s poorest households. Inflation for the bottom 30 percent income group dropped to -0.8 percent in July, down from 5.8 percent a year ago, effectively putting this group in deflation.
The Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) attributed this to lower prices of essentials such as rice, corn, tubers, and vegetables—all vital to the daily meals of many Filipino families.
“The sustained drop in rice prices and easing inflation for low-income households are clear signs our interventions are working,” said DEPDev Secretary Arsenio Balisacan. “We’re not just improving statistics—we’re improving lives.”
Risks still loom
Despite the overall positive outlook, Mapa warned of emerging pressures that could push inflation upward again. These include rising pork prices due to the continued impact of African Swine Fever (ASF), increased demand for chicken meat as a substitute, and higher fish prices.
There are also seasonal threats. Vegetable prices inched up in the latter part of July, a typical pattern during typhoon season.
To cushion the blow from recent natural disasters, the Department of Agriculture (DA) allocated PHP495.4 million worth of agricultural inputs—like rice, corn, and vegetable seeds—to affected farmers. The agency is also offering interest-free loans of up to PHP25,000 under its SURE Loan Program.
Preparing for what’s next
Looking ahead, the government says it will stay alert to global market shifts, policy changes, and geopolitical tensions that could upset the delicate balance.
“We remain vigilant,” Balisacan emphasized. “But for now, this positive momentum gives businesses and consumers the confidence to plan ahead.”
Another boost is expected later this month with the arrival of 150,000 doses of ASF vaccines from Vietnam—an important step in stabilizing the country’s pork supply chain.
Bottom line
July’s inflation dip offers welcome breathing room, especially for low-income households. But officials are clear: the work is far from over.
“Our priority remains the same,” said Balisacan. “Protecting the purchasing power of Filipinos.”