A potential impeachment showdown against Vice President Sara Duterte is gaining traction in the House of Representatives, with key lawmakers signaling that support could already exceed the threshold needed to elevate the case to a Senate trial.
Deputy Speaker Janette Garin said indications from internal discussions suggest “more than half” of House members may be inclined to back the complaint—well above the one-third requirement, or 106 votes, needed to transmit impeachment articles to the Senate.
The emerging numbers reflect a complex political calculus within the chamber, particularly among members of the ruling party Lakas-CMD, which commands more than 80 seats. Garin noted that as much as two-thirds of the party’s bloc could support impeachment, although individual decisions remain fluid.
“There is enough on record to establish probable cause, and these points have yet to be convincingly rebutted,” she said, referring to findings from recent committee hearings.
Conscience Vote Over Party Line
Despite the apparent momentum, Lakas-CMD is opting against enforcing a unified party position—an approach that underscores the sensitivity of the issue. Instead, lawmakers are being encouraged to vote independently, balancing legal considerations with political realities in their districts.
Garin acknowledged that geography and local sentiment could weigh heavily on decision-making, particularly for representatives from Mindanao, where Duterte’s political base remains strong.
Behind the scenes, lawmakers have been holding small group discussions—some in person, others virtually—to gauge support levels and map out possible voting scenarios. These informal consultations, she said, are meant to give party leaders a clearer picture of internal divisions without forcing consensus.
Party-List Bloc Also Tilting Toward Impeachment
Support may not be limited to major parties. Terry Ridon of Bicol Saro Party-list said more than half of party-list representatives are likewise expected to favor impeachment, potentially reinforcing the numbers needed for a decisive vote.
The House Committee on Justice has already found probable cause in two complaints filed against Duterte and is now preparing its report and draft articles of impeachment. These will be reviewed at the committee level before being presented to the full chamber, where a vote is anticipated in the coming days.
Allegations of Pressure Cloud Proceedings
Even as numbers appear to be consolidating, the process has not been without controversy.
Davao City Rep. Paolo Duterte, the vice president’s brother, has warned fellow lawmakers against succumbing to alleged political pressure. He claimed that budget allocations and scrutiny of Statements of Assets, Liabilities and Net Worth (SALNs) are being used to influence votes—an accusation firmly denied by several House members.
Ridon dismissed the claim, while Manila Rep. Joel Chua challenged Duterte allies to substantiate their allegations publicly.
Garin, for her part, urged caution against unverified claims. “It’s important to put names and faces to these accusations. Otherwise, we risk feeding misinformation at a time when clarity is crucial,” she said.
Legal Strategy Under Scrutiny
Another flashpoint is the legal approach of the vice president’s camp. Ridon argued that if Duterte chooses to participate in a Senate trial, her legal team should withdraw a pending petition before the Supreme Court questioning the constitutionality of the impeachment proceedings.
Maintaining both tracks simultaneously, he warned, could undermine the credibility of her legal stance.
Countdown to a Defining Vote
With the House expected to vote on the committee report soon, the impeachment process is entering a decisive phase. Should the required votes be secured, the case will move to the Senate for trial—setting the stage for one of the most consequential political battles in recent years.
For now, the numbers suggest momentum is building. But as lawmakers navigate competing pressures—legal, political, and personal—the final outcome remains anything but certain.