Geopolitical instability in key oil-producing regions overseas is expected to push global crude and refined fuel benchmarks higher next week, a trend that could translate to steeper prices at Philippine fuel stations. Analysts and industry players say the mounting risk premium built into oil markets amid unrest in Iran, supply uncertainties and maritime tensions is feeding upward pressure on global energy costs.
Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas said on Friday that, based on movements in the Asian fuel price benchmark and foreign exchange rates through Thursday, next week’s retail prices for diesel may climb by as much as P1.80 to P2 per liter, while gasoline could rise by roughly P1 to P1.20 per liter.
Bellas pointed to several geopolitical flashpoints as drivers of the recent price momentum. He noted that widespread protests in Iran and the specter of possible U.S. intervention have stoked fears of broader instability that could affect crude oil flows, particularly around the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world’s crude transits.
Tensions have been compounded by attacks on oil tankers in the Black Sea, which have introduced additional uncertainty around shipping and supply chains, even as some markets grapple with the risk of oversupply.
Market data show Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices oscillating with headlines around Iran’s domestic unrest and risks of Middle East supply disruption. Some analysts estimate that these geopolitical concerns have added a notable risk premium to oil pricing.
However, there are countervailing forces at play. Recent diplomatic rhetoric and indications that supply from Venezuela could increase, along with higher U.S. crude inventories, have eased some fears of a sharp, sustained disruption to global production.
If Bellas’s projections hold, next week will mark the fourth straight increase in diesel prices and the second consecutive rise for gasoline at the pump. Kerosene has also been on an upward trajectory for three straight weeks.
The interplay between geopolitical risk and market fundamentals remains fluid. While headline events can trigger short-term price spikes, broader supply dynamics — including production levels, inventory builds and demand signals — will continue to shape oil price direction throughout 2026.