(Photo courtesy by Anadolu)
GENEVA – The ongoing El Niño is rapidly intensifying and could become one of the strongest events in decades, raising the risk of extreme heat, drought and flooding in different parts of the world, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Thursday.
In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the United Nations weather agency said there is a near-100 percent probability that El Niño will persist through February 2027 and is expected to peak around December.
“El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, warning that it could become “one of the strongest since at least 1950.”
For the October-to-December period, the average sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is forecast to reach around 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal.
The WMO said this would be the highest level since observations began, surpassing the previous record of 2.6 degrees Celsius above normal during the November 2015 to January 2016 period.
The strengthening El Niño is expected to contribute to above-average temperatures across large parts of the world while significantly altering rainfall patterns.
Wetter-than-normal conditions are forecast over the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central and East Asia, northern portions of the Arabian Peninsula, parts of North America and southeastern South America.
Drier-than-normal conditions, meanwhile, are expected over the Indian subcontinent, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean and northwestern South America.
Saulo said El Niño does not create additional planetary heat but releases heat already stored in the ocean.
She warned that the current event is drawing energy from oceans that are already at record-high temperatures.
The WMO said national meteorological agencies and regional climate forums are issuing regular updates to governments and humanitarian organizations to support preparedness and risk management.
