More provinces are expected to experience dry conditions and dry spells in the coming months as El Niño strengthens, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Wednesday.
PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said Davao del Sur, Davao Occidental and Sarangani are forecast to experience dry conditions by the end of September, while Camarines Sur may experience drought.
PAGASA defines dry conditions as two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, while drought refers to three consecutive months of way-below-normal rainfall.
By the end of October, dry spell conditions are expected in 16 provinces: Abra, Apayao, Bataan, Batanes, Benguet, Cagayan, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Kalinga, La Union, Mountain Province, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan and Zambales.
The number of provinces expected to experience dry spell conditions could rise to at least 44 by the end of November.
At least 17 provinces in Luzon are projected to experience three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall by then, including Abra, Apayao, Bataan, Batanes, Benguet, Cagayan, Cavite, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Kalinga, La Union, Mountain Province, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan and Zambales.
By the end of December, 16 areas in Mindanao are forecast to experience dry conditions, while 22 provinces nationwide may be under dry spell conditions.
Solis said the strengthening El Niño could also bring warmer-than-usual temperatures even during the upcoming northeast monsoon or amihan season.
PAGASA expects hotter-than-normal conditions across most parts of the country from September 2026 to February 2027, with El Niño projected to become very strong by the end of December.
