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Inflation in April was projected to pick up and move beyond the government’s preferred range, driven by mounting cost pressures tied to global oil developments.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) estimated price growth to fall between 5.6 percent and 6.4 percent for the month, faster than the 4.1 percent recorded in March.
This outlook placed inflation above the official 2 percent to 4 percent target, signaling renewed strain on consumer prices.
The central bank said the expected increase echoed levels last seen in 2022 and 2023, when global fuel and fertilizer costs surged following the Russia-Ukraine war.
Authorities attributed the upward trend to higher domestic fuel prices, rising costs of staple food items such as rice, fish, and meat, as well as increased electricity rates and a weaker peso.
Still, officials noted that easing prices of vegetables and fruits could partly offset the overall uptick, though risks on the upside remain.
The BSP said it continues to closely track developments, especially shifts in inflation and economic growth indicators.
It added that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also being monitored for their potential impact on prices and economic activity, ahead of the official April inflation release by the Philippine Statistics Authority on May 5, 2026.