ACT-CIS Party-list Representative Erwin Tulfo, an administration-backed candidate, attends the Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas press conference on Tuesday (Feb. 11, 2025) in Laoag City, Ilocos Norte. Tulfo leads the latest OCTA Research pre-election survey for the 2025 Senate race with 70 percent voter preference. (PNA photo by Avito Dalan)
Nine Senate candidates aligned with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration are among the probable winners in the 2025 elections, according to the latest OCTA Research pre-election survey conducted from January 25 to 31.
The survey, which polled 1,200 respondents nationwide, showed that ACT-CIS Party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo is the frontrunner, securing the top spot with 70% voter preference.
Former Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto III ranked between third and eighth place, earning 52% voter support.
Other administration-supported candidates within the probable “Magic 12” include:
- Senator Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. – 49% (4th to 11th place)
- Former Senator Panfilo Lacson – 48% (4th to 11th place)
- Senator Pia Cayetano – 46% (4th to 11th place)
- Former Senator Manny Pacquiao – 45% (5th to 12th place)
- Senator Imee Marcos – 44% (5th to 13th place)
- Senator Lito Lapid – 43% (5th to 14th place)
- Former Interior Secretary Benjamin “Benhur” Abalos Jr. – 39% (9th to 16th place)
Though some administration bets landed outside the Top 12, they still have a statistical chance of securing a Senate seat. These include:
- Senator Francis Tolentino – 38%
- Makati Mayor Abby Binay – 37%
- Las Piñas Representative Camille Villar – 36%
Independent and non-admin candidates in the Top 12
Three non-administration candidates were also placed among the frontrunners:
- Independent candidate Ben Tulfo – 60% (2nd to 3rd place)
- Senator Christopher “Bong” Go – 58% (2nd to 4th place)
- TV host Willie Revillame – 48% (tied with Lacson at 4th to 11th place)
Survey methodology and public sentiment
The nationwide survey, which has a ±3% margin of error, asked respondents:
“If the May 2025 elections were held today, who would you likely vote for as senator?”
Participants were allowed to select up to 12 candidates, reflecting early trends in voter preferences.
With more than a month left before the midterm elections, political analysts note that voter sentiment may shift, especially as campaigns ramp up and candidates further solidify their platforms.