Motorists may soon get relief at the pump, with fuel prices expected to drop significantly next week following a period of steep increases. The anticipated rollback comes as global oil prices eased amid signs of a de-escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran.
According to projections based on recent trading data, the expected price reductions for the week of July 1 are as follows:
– Gasoline: Down by P1.00 to P1.40 per liter
– Diesel: Down by P1.60 to P2.10 per liter
– Kerosene: Down by P2.00 to P2.20 per liter
The estimates were drawn from four-day trading activity in the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), which serves as the benchmark for pricing refined petroleum products across Southeast Asia. This is according to Rodela Romero, Assistant Director of the Department of Energy’s Oil Industry Management Bureau.
Romero explained that the downward trend in prices is largely driven by international developments. “Bearish factor that counterbalance the bullish price last week is the announcement of President [Donald] Trump of possible ceasefire between Israel and Iran, thus crude oil future extends drop,” she said.
The MOPS index is a daily average of trading transactions assessed and summarized by Standard & Poor’s Platts and is widely used by the local oil industry to determine pump prices.
Earlier, DOE officer-in-charge Sharon Garin also acknowledged that the global price of crude had been trending downward in recent days following President Trump’s announcement that a ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran was already in place. The potential easing of geopolitical tensions has injected calm into oil markets that were previously rattled by fears of conflict-driven supply disruptions.
This projected rollback will come as a welcome development for consumers, especially after enduring a double dose of fuel price hikes this past week. To mitigate the impact on the public, oil companies agreed to implement the increases in two separate tranches.
The first round of hikes was implemented at 6 a.m. on Tuesday, June 24, with gasoline prices rising by P1.75 per liter, diesel by P2.60, and kerosene by P2.40. The second tranche took effect at 6 a.m. on Thursday, June 26, repeating the same adjustments to complete the full round of increases.
Industry analysts say the coming rollback may not fully offset the recent hikes but will still provide some relief to transport operators, logistics companies, and everyday motorists struggling with volatile pump prices.
As the global oil market remains sensitive to geopolitical signals, the DOE continues to monitor trends that could affect local fuel pricing. The agency also reiterates its commitment to ensuring price transparency and protecting consumer interests amid shifting market conditions.
Meanwhile, transport group Manibela has expressed disappointment over the government’s decision to put the fuel subsidy program on hold, even as jeepney drivers continue to struggle with the rising cost of fuel due to the second tranche of this week’s price hike.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. recalled the distribution of fuel subsidies citing a downward trend in global oil prices. However, Manibela chairman Mar Valbuena countered that the decline has yet to reflect at local gas stations, with public utility drivers still needing support.
“Parang inuuto na lang tayo kasi last week, wala pa yung P5 na increase (sa diesel), pinag-uusapan na ‘yung fuel subsidy. Tapos nandito na yung P5 na increase, pero wala pa rin pala, babawiin niyo rin pala,” Valbuena said.
He added, “Kung bababa ang presyo ng krudo, sa susunod na tranche wag na kaming bigyan. Pero itong linggo na ‘to na nagtaas siya yun dapat ‘yung mabawi natin.”
Despite the criticism, the Department of Transportation (DOTr) assured the public transport sector that the government is ready to roll out the subsidies once the legal trigger is met.
“Klarong-klaro po kasi ang probisyon ng batas. Pwede lang nating magamit ang fuel subsidy budget pagka pumalo ng $80 per barrel ang (Dubai crude) oil,” DOTr secretary Vince Dizon said in a press briefing in Malacañang.
“Wag po silang mag-aalala, nandito po ang pondo ng gobyerno. Ready na po tayong i-distribute at ito po ang utos ng ating pangulo na kapag kinakailangan na, ayon sa probisyon ng batas, e mabilisan nating idi-distribute ito… Walang delay dito. Talagang papaspasan natin, isi-simplify natin ang proseso para makuha kagad ang fuel subsidy,” he added.
Still, Valbuena questioned why the government failed to provide assistance earlier this year, pointing out that the Department of Energy reported oil prices had already crossed the $80-per-barrel threshold months ago.
He also raised concerns about unspent funds. According to the DOTr, the P2.5 billion fuel subsidy fund under the 2025 national budget remains untouched, while over P600 million from the 2024 allocation is still available.
“Kung ang basehan natin $80 dollar per barrel, may utang pa kayo sa amin kasi February hindi niyo ito naibigay so dapat doble na ngayon. Napakalaking pera, saan natin pina-park itong pera na ‘to? Saan natin ginagamit?,” Valbuena asked.
Dizon, who assumed office only in February, said he will look into the matter.
On fare hike requests
With subsidies still on hold, some groups have also renewed calls for a fare increase. However, Dizon said any fare adjustment would need to be thoroughly evaluated alongside economic managers.
“You need to balance that because if you do a fare hike, it’s the commuters naman that will suffer. Ang daming epekto e kasi inflationary din. Even if it’s 1 peso, it’s still significant when you add it up,” he explained.
Valbuena said Manibela would be amenable to foregoing both a subsidy and a fare hike—if oil prices go down significantly next week. Otherwise, he warned, they may have no choice but to stage protests.
“Baka next week 50 cents lang ang katumbas (ng rollback)… Kung mataas pa rin ang presyo, walang fuel subsidy, walang fare increase, kinawawa niyo talaga kami. Pinahirapan niyo kami nang husto, hindi niyo kami kinalinga, poprotestahan namin kayo,” he said.