Young Environmental Forum founder and chief strategic advisor Ludwig Federigan. (Photo from the Board of Investments)
With Asia-Pacific facing a strong El Niño potentially reinforced by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), advocacy group Young Environmental Forum has underscored the need for the Philippines to step up its preparations to actively respond to the phenomenon impact on the country’s economy.
According to the group’s founder and chief strategic advisor Ludwig Federigan, the situation is unfolding against an already fragile economic backdrop and the coming months will demand urgent, coordinated preparedness.
During discussions in the Navigating the 2026/27 El Niño in Asia‑Pacific organized by the Asia‑Pacific Technical Working Group on Early Warnings and Anticipatory Action and the Anticipation Hub, Federigan made mention of global climate monitors that highlighted the climate pattern in July 2026 as seasonal models that intensified through summer.
“The Copernicus Climate Change Service and the World Meteorological Organization showed El Niño’s rapid strengthening through August–October and into late 2026. The Relative Oceanic Niño Index trajectories will rival the strongest events of recent decades,” he disclosed.
“Regional Climate Centers (RCC)—India Meteorological Department, Meteorological Service Singapore and Earth Sciences New Zealand—agree that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation is established. Several models indicate that a positive IOD developing in September historically amplifies drought and heat in parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific,” he cited.
Federigan forecasted for the Philippines that the likely strong El Niño will translate into a mix of hotter‑than‑normal temperatures and altered rainfall patterns that vary by island and seasonand with ome provinces experiencing different seasonal anomalies.
“Agricultural seasons could be disrupted by delayed rains, increasing irrigation needs and stressing water supplies. Hotter air raises heat‑related health risks and can intensify fire danger and transboundary haze episodes. Localized drought conditions could threaten municipal water security and smallholder livelihoods,” he warned, stressing that the situation is made more complex by the possible development of a positive IOD and by local topography and ocean influences.
“Impacts will be highly uneven across the archipelago and depend on subseasonal shifts and local water management. The timing matters as many agricultural regions enter the critical El Niño window following years of recovery from previous extremes (. . .) The greatest risk lies ahead, with potential rainfall deficits, soil moisture declines and vegetation deterioration during late 2026 and early 2027 if the event strengthens,” he pointed out.
“For Filipino farmers, this could mean lower yields for staple crops, increased irrigation costs and pressure on households that have limited buffers against rising input prices, not to mention concurrent economic shocks due to elevated fuel and fertilizer prices, which already raised production costs and contributed to food price inflation even before the peak climate impacts appeared,” he added.
Small island and upland communities are exposed. Reduced rainfall can strain municipal water supplies and agriculture. Hotter conditions raise the risk of heat stress and shift disease vulnerability. Fire risk and smoke episodes threaten health and air quality in urban and rural areas alike; transboundary haze episodes are a concern during prolonged dry periods. Coastal fisheries and coral systems may be affected by ocean warming and local ecosystem stressors, with knock‑on effects for food security.
In ending, Federigan outlined practical steps for response which include monitoring and translating forecasts into action and maintaining frequent, sub‑seasonal and seasonal monitoring from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
“We need to strengthen coordination and communications. Convene multi‑sectoral coordination involving meteorological services, agriculture agencies, water utilities, health departments and humanitarian partners to review evolving risks and pre‑agree triggers for anticipatory action like cash transfers and drought relief.
Anticipatory measures should be done. Protect seed stocks, preposition water and emergency supplies in vulnerable municipalities. Repair and desilt critical canals and reservoirs before dry season peaks. Accelerate distribution of drought‑tolerant seeds and expand cooling and outreach for heat‑vulnerable groups. Update beneficiary registries and logistical plans to quickly mobilize assistance,” he concluded.