Motorists could face a sharp increase in gasoline prices next week, while diesel prices are expected to decline as global oil markets continue to react to supply disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas said Friday that gasoline prices could increase by Php 2.90 to Php 3.20 per liter, while diesel prices may decrease by Php 0.40 to Php 0.60 per liter in the first week of November.
The projections are based on fuel price movements in Asia and foreign exchange trends as of Thursday, October 29.
The expected adjustments would reverse the trend over the past two weeks, when gasoline prices declined while diesel prices increased.
Bellas clarified that the estimates do not yet include week-on-week changes in ocean freight and insurance costs, which could affect the final adjustments.
He attributed the price movements partly to continuing concerns over potential energy supply disruptions in the Middle East, where regional attacks have heightened uncertainty in global oil markets.
According to Bellas, gasoline and diesel prices have largely followed crude oil movements amid concerns over possible further escalation of the conflict, including speculation about potential US military action against Iran following the upcoming US midterm elections.
He expressed hope that diplomatic efforts to resolve the eight-month conflict would succeed and help ease upward pressure on international oil prices.
Meanwhile, improving global fuel supply prospects have helped limit further increases in petroleum prices.
Bellas said China’s issuance of a fourth batch of export quotas for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel has improved supply expectations.
South Korea’s decision to ease restrictions on diesel exports has also contributed to the improving supply outlook.
Russian exports of gasoline and diesel have likewise increased amid a pause in confirmed Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.
“Russian diesel and gasoline exports also peaked amid a pause in confirmed Ukrainian refinery strikes. These factors have pressured diesel, reversing earlier gains,” Bellas said.
The combined developments have placed downward pressure on diesel prices despite continuing geopolitical tensions.
Final fuel price adjustments will depend on remaining market movements and will be announced by oil companies ahead of their implementation next week.
