A gas attendant fills the tank of a motorcycle rider at a gas station in Tondo, Manila on Monday (March 2, 2026). Retailers said they will increase prices per liter of gasoline by PHP1.90, diesel by PHP1.20 and kerosene by PHP1.50 on Tuesday amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. (PNA photo by Yancy Lim)
Global oil prices could surge to as high as USD100 per barrel as tensions continue to flare in the Middle East, but domestic fuel supply remains secure for now, according to a local oil industry executive.
Jetti Energy president Leo Bellas said the latest escalation has injected fresh uncertainty into global energy markets, particularly if disruptions in key shipping routes persist. In a Viber message to journalists on Monday, Bellas warned that a prolonged disruption in supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz could push prices sharply higher.
“The uncertainty on how long this fresh escalation could be sustained would likely put more upside risk to prices,” Bellas said. “It is likely that prices could be pushed to USD100 per barrel and beyond if the current disruption to supply flows in the Strait of Hormuz will be prolonged.”
Despite the global volatility, Bellas assured that local oil firms remain compliant with government regulations requiring a minimum of 15 days’ worth of fuel inventory. He added that industry players are currently holding closer to 30 days of supply, providing a cushion against immediate shortages.
Crude oil prices earlier climbed to an eight-month high of USD75.33 per barrel during the morning session at the New York Mercantile Exchange before easing to the USD72 level by the close of trading. Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation chief economist Michael Ricafort noted that prices had previously peaked at USD78.40 per barrel during earlier attacks involving the United States and Israel against Iran.
Ricafort cautioned that higher global oil prices, combined with a weakening peso, could feed into higher domestic pump prices and fuel inflationary pressures in the country.
The potential ripple effects on the broader economy were also flagged by Federation of Philippine Industries chair Beth Lee, who described the Middle East crisis as more than a geopolitical issue.
“This is not just a distant conflict — it is an inflationary shock that could affect Philippine households and industries if tensions persist,” Lee said in a statement.
She warned that sustained increases in global oil prices could drive up domestic fuel costs, electricity rates, and transportation fares. While existing inventories may help stagger price adjustments in the short term, Lee stressed that the buffer is limited.
“If the conflict escalates or becomes prolonged, inventories will be replenished at higher global prices, resulting in sustained upward pressure on domestic fuel costs,” she said.
Lee added that manufacturers reliant on imported inputs could also face rising freight costs, longer transit times, and more expensive raw materials, further weighing on production costs and consumer prices.