The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) reported that La Niña remained over the tropical Pacific but was expected to weaken in the coming months.
Climate models indicated a high probability of a shift to ENSO-neutral conditions between February and April, Pagasa officials said.
ENSO-neutral occurs when neither La Niña nor El Niño dominates, and PAGASA forecast these conditions to persist through June to August.
Rainfall in March was expected to be below normal across most of Luzon, while southern parts of the island would see average levels. Mindanao was likely to experience above-normal rainfall, and the rest of the country would receive near-normal precipitation.
By April, rainfall was projected to return closer to normal, although isolated areas in Luzon and the Visayas could still experience drier conditions. May was forecast to bring above-normal precipitation to Palawan, much of the Visayas, and northeastern Mindanao.
Near-normal rainfall was expected from June to July as the southwest monsoon took hold, with rain concentrating in western regions. August was also projected to be near-normal, with some isolated areas possibly receiving below-average rainfall.
Pagasa anticipated six to fourteen tropical cyclones could enter or develop in the Philippine Area of Responsibility during this period. Weather systems such as the northeast monsoon, frontal systems, low-pressure areas, the ITCZ, and the southwest monsoon were expected to influence rainfall and temperature.
Temperatures were projected to rise with the dry season, with northern Luzon reaching up to 39.9°C, lowland Luzon up to 39.6°C, and Metro Manila up to 37.5°C. PAGASA urged the public and concerned agencies to follow advisories closely as the country transitioned from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions.
