Consumers can expect slower inflation in June 2025, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which forecasts the headline rate to fall between 1.1% and 1.9%—its lowest range in years. The easing inflation is seen as a welcome development amid global economic uncertainties and rising commodity prices.
In its month-ahead forecast released Monday, the BSP noted that price increases in meat, vegetables, and oil, along with the weaker peso, were key sources of inflationary pressure during the month. However, these were tempered by declining prices of rice, fish, fruits, and lower electricity rates, helping ease the overall cost of living.
“The balance of risks to inflation in June tilted toward the upside due to volatile fuel prices and peso depreciation,” the BSP said in a statement. “However, favorable supply-side developments helped anchor inflation expectations.”
While the central bank acknowledged the mixed signals from various price categories, it reaffirmed its commitment to price stability. The BSP emphasized that its monetary policy stance remains aligned with its goal of sustaining economic growth and job creation, especially as the country recovers from recent global shocks and domestic supply challenges.
Economic analysts say that if the inflation rate stays within the projected range, it could give the BSP more room to maneuver on interest rates in the second half of the year.
“This low inflation print may signal a potential pause or even a cut in policy rates, depending on how the global energy market and currency trends behave in the coming months,” said Katrina Dela Cruz, an economist from Synergia Research Group.
The official inflation figure for June will be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority next week.