While there are legal luminaries who believe that the required voting threshold of 16 to convict Vice President ‘Inday’ Sara Duterte-Carpio pose as a big challenge, more registered Filipino voters expect the impeachment court to find her guilty as the trial proceeds without prejudice.
Based on the results of PUBLiCUS Asia’s PAHAYAG third-quarter survey, 44 percent of Filipinos anticipate a conviction and only 31 percent an acquittal while 25 percent are undecided or unable to say how the trial would end.
Another 11 percent, however, believe the proceedings could conclude without a final verdict.
The survey findings predate last Tuesday’s withdrawal by House prosecutors of three of the four impeachment charges against the daughter of former president Rodrigo ‘Rody’ Duterte, which could affect public perception.
It likewise indicated substantial public interest in the impeachment trial with 65 percent of respondents saying they were highly interested in following the proceedings.
Fifty percent of survey respondents cited online news reports and television broadcasts as primary sources of information about the trial while close at 45 percent relied on livestreams and live trial coverage.
Regarding evidences and witness testimonies presented by the prosecution panel, 44 to 46 percent of consider them sufficient while 38 to 40 percent perceive additional evidence is needed. Also evident is stronger support for the sufficiency of the evidence in Metro Manila and South Luzon while respondents in Mindanao say more evidence is necessary.
Additionally, the opinion of 45 to 47 percent enthuse they were convinced by the evidence presented so far, compared with 37 to 38 percent who remain doubtful.
On the voting threshold for conviction, 35 percent of respondents believed 16 senator-judges were required, while 34 percent estimated the threshold at 12 to 14 votes.
The survey found that 52 percent supported the Senate Impeachment Court’s decision to calculate the two-thirds voting requirement based on senators legally and factually able to participate, rather than the full 24-member Senate.
Given the revised threshold, half of respondents believed at least 14 senator-judges would vote to convict Duterte on all three alleged counts: grave threats, misuse of confidential funds and unexplained wealth.
