Filipino motorists are bracing for one of the steepest fuel price adjustments in recent years as oil companies prepare to impose a massive increase at the pumps beginning Tuesday, March 10, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to global oil supply routes.
Industry projections released by the Department of Energy indicate that gasoline prices could climb by as much as ₱7.00 to ₱13.00 per liter, while diesel may surge by ₱17.50 to ₱24.25 per liter.
Kerosene is expected to see the sharpest increase, jumping between ₱32.00 and ₱38.50 per liter. If realized, the adjustments would mark the ninth straight weekly increase for gasoline and the 11th consecutive hike for diesel and kerosene.
The surge is being fueled by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping corridors that connects major Gulf oil producers to global markets. The waterway lies between Iran and Oman and is responsible for transporting a significant portion of the world’s crude supply.
The shutdown of the route amid escalating military conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has rattled global energy markets and triggered fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
Energy officials warned that the tightening global supply has quickly translated into higher import costs for petroleum products in countries heavily dependent on imported fuel, including the Philippines.
The Department of Energy’s Oil Industry Management Bureau had earlier projected that diesel alone could rise by at least ₱19 per liter this week, while gasoline and kerosene could increase by ₱9 and ₱31 per liter, respectively.
The expected spike comes just a week after fuel retailers implemented smaller adjustments on March 3, when gasoline prices rose by ₱1.90 per liter, diesel by ₱1.20, and kerosene by ₱1.50. Analysts say the latest jump signals a more severe wave of increases as global markets react to intensifying geopolitical risks.
Government agencies have begun preparing measures to cushion the impact on consumers and key sectors of the economy. Authorities confirmed that fuel subsidies for public utility vehicle operators, farmers, and fisherfolk are being readied to help offset rising transport and production costs.
Plans are also underway to provide free bus rides in selected routes to ease the burden on commuters.
Energy officials have also appealed to oil companies to stagger the implementation of the price adjustments to soften the immediate impact on motorists. Meanwhile, monitoring teams composed of the Department of Energy, the Department of the Interior and Local Government, and the Philippine National Police have been deployed to prevent hoarding, profiteering, or manipulation of fuel supplies following reports of irregular sales activities in parts of Luzon and Mindanao.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the government is studying the possibility of temporarily reducing or suspending excise taxes on petroleum products if the global oil crisis worsens. The Department of Finance has yet to estimate the potential revenue losses should such a policy be implemented.
The dramatic increase in oil prices follows a sharp escalation in Middle East hostilities. Tensions intensified after U.S.-Israeli military strikes reportedly killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an incident that has triggered fears of wider regional instability.
United States President Donald Trump has since declared that military operations in Iran will continue until strategic objectives are achieved, further raising concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy supply chains.
With global markets on edge and supply routes under threat, energy experts warn that fuel volatility could persist in the coming weeks, potentially pushing pump prices even higher and placing additional pressure on inflation and transport costs across the Philippines.