The Philippine government is preparing contingency measures as escalating tensions in the Middle East begin to ripple through global energy markets, raising concerns over potential fuel shortages and surging oil prices.
The Department of Energy (DOE) said it is currently assessing multiple scenarios—from moderate disruptions to a prolonged crisis—as the conflict threatens to destabilize international supply chains for petroleum and other energy resources.
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said the government has already held discussions with oil companies and relevant agencies to map out possible responses should the conflict intensify.
“We are studying different scenarios—moderate and extreme—especially if the war drags on,” Garin said, noting that the government’s main objective is to keep electricity and fuel prices manageable for consumers while ensuring stable supply.
Global energy markets have already begun to feel the strain. According to Garin, several key commodities—particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), coal, and diesel—are experiencing upward price pressure as uncertainty spreads across international markets.
The Philippines currently maintains around 60 days of fuel reserves, which officials say should provide enough time for the government and private sector to secure alternative supply sources if disruptions worsen.
However, Garin acknowledged that some traditional suppliers have temporarily halted exports, tightening the supply landscape. Countries such as Singapore, Qatar, China, and Thailand—several of which are among the Philippines’ regular fuel sources—have reportedly restricted shipments amid the geopolitical tensions.
Despite these challenges, the DOE has asked oil companies to explore other suppliers willing to continue deliveries. Authorities are also urging industry players to avoid imposing large one-time price increases that could shock the domestic market.
Some projections suggest pump prices could rise by as much as ₱10 to ₱15 per liter if global crude prices continue to climb.
While the government cannot legally dictate fuel pricing due to the country’s oil deregulation policy, officials are encouraging oil firms to implement staggered price adjustments instead of immediate large hikes.
At the same time, policymakers are examining additional interventions to reduce fuel consumption and cushion consumers from potential price spikes.
Beyond short-term crisis management, the DOE is highlighting the importance of strengthening domestic renewable energy sources to reduce dependence on imported fuel.
Garin pointed to geothermal power as one of the country’s most reliable energy resources—capable of producing electricity continuously regardless of geopolitical turmoil abroad.
“Kahit may giyera sa Middle East, geothermal will never fail us because it’s our own resource,” Garin said during the 50th anniversary celebration of Energy Development Corporation.
Despite its reliability, geothermal development remains capital-intensive and risky due to the high costs of exploration and drilling. These challenges have slowed investment in the sector and allowed Indonesia to overtake the Philippines as the world’s second-largest geothermal producer.
To address this hurdle, the government recently introduced a geothermal de-risking facility backed by the Asian Development Bank. Through the program, companies can obtain financing for exploratory drilling. If projects fail to produce viable geothermal resources, the funding may be converted into a grant rather than a loan.
Officials hope the initiative will encourage more private investment in geothermal energy and accelerate the country’s transition toward cleaner power.
The Philippines is aiming to raise the share of renewable energy in its power mix to 35 percent by 2030 and 50 percent by 2040—targets that energy officials say will help shield the country from global energy shocks like the current Middle East crisis.
Industry leaders have echoed the call. Jerome Cainglet said the geopolitical turmoil highlights the urgent need for the country to double down on geothermal and other renewable sources.
“All the more this situation shows why we must invest in geothermal,” Cainglet said, describing it as the “holy grail” of renewable energy capable of providing stable, long-term power for the Philippines.