By Komfie Manalo
Nine candidates from the pro-administration alliance are among the top 12 ranked candidates based on a survey conducted by market research firm Tangere. Brothers Erwin and Tulfo lead the polls at number one and two, respectively.
Surprisingly, none of the Liberal Party stalwarts are among the top 12 ranked candidates, with two aspirants identified with former president Rodrigo Duterte joining the top 12. The results show a major shift in the country's political landscape, with the Duterte group emerging as the new opposition and the so-called "dilawan" (yellow) or "pinklawan" losing significance, at least at the national level.
"To be fair, former sen. Bam Aquino is 'statistically tied' with candidates from the top 10 to the top 12, although he is at number 13," said Tangere chief executive officer (CEO) Martin Penaflor. "On a national level, we can see that none of the Liberal Party candidates are in the top 12 ranking. But on a regional scale, Bam Aquino shows strong voter preference in the Bicol region."
Penaflor explained that the Bicol region, the home province of former Vice President Leni Robredo, is a Liberal Party stronghold.
"Just like Northern Luzon is a Marcos country," he added.
Possible T3 in the Senate
In the survey conducted from October 10 to 12, ACT-CIS party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo maintains his consistency as a top voter's favorite, increasing by 4.5% after filing his certificate of candidacy, with a total voter preference rate of 62.33%
Ben "Bitag" Tulfo recorded a 6.42% increase in his voter preference rate, jumping four notches from sixth place last month to second place in the recent polls.
"Voters from Metro Manila, Mindanao, and Northern Luzon were the primary drivers of increase for the 6.42% increase of Ben Tulfo, with a total voter preference of 49%," Penaflor said.
The survey also showed that nine of the top 12 senators in the recent polls come from the Marcos administration's ticket.
Among them are incumbent senators Pia Cayetano (46.08%), Lito Lapid (31.67%), and Francis Tolentino (31.46%); former senators Tito Sotto (46.50%), Manny Pacquiao (42.21%), and Panfilo "Ping" Lacson (38.92%); Makati Mayor Abby Binay (36.17%); and former Interior Secretary Benhur Abalos (33.42%).
Interestingly, Penaflor said that data showed that supporters of former president Rodrigo Duterte "transferred" their votes among the Tulfo brothers and Lacson and not to Senators Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa as anticipated.
Instead, Go only saw a 0.5% voter preference increase from the previous month, and this is because of his strong showing in the Bicol region.
"When Duterte didn't file his COC, his voter preference [rate] from the previous survey, when we analyzed it, went to three major people: Erwin Tulfo, Ben Tulfo, and Ping Lacson. Lacson went from 14th to 7th in one month, and his voter preference is driven by voters 36 years old and above, similar to the voter preference back then of then-president Rodrigo Duterte. His votes were also driven by voters from Calabarzon and Davao Region," he explained.
"Our analysis is that people are no longer aligning. Go to the former president," Penaflor said.
"When you mention Bong Go, what comes to mind first? Last year, it was Duterte—his special aide. If you ask about Bong Go, it's Malasakit (compassion), referring to the Malasakit Program. Duterte is no longer at the top of my mind. And that's the best awareness stage," he added in Filipino.
Queried if the revelation of former Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office(PCSO) chairman Royina Garma identifying Duterte and Go as playing critical roles in the bloody drug war could impact Go's standing, Penaflor said it could, but the results will be noticed in next month's survey.
Aside from Go, only Sagip Party-list Rep. Rodante Marcoleta from the Duterte ticket is in the top 12, garnering a total voter preference of 31.88%.
The market research firm said Marcoleta's result is driven by respondents from Mindanao, particularly the Davao Region.
The Tangere national survey was conducted through a mobile-based app with a sample size of 2,400 participants, yielding a margin of error of +/- 1.96% at a 95% confidence level.
Penaflor said only 600 of the 2,400 respondents selected a full 12-seat senatorial lineup.
Respondents voted for just eight senators on average, which the firm attributes to factors such as low candidate awareness and preference.
The market research firm said the survey employed a stratified random sampling method based on quotas and was distributed across the country.
"It included 12% of respondents from the National Capital Region, 23% from Northern Luzon, 22% from Southern Luzon, 20% from Visayas, and 23% from Mindanao," Penaflor said.
Tangere is an award-winning market research company focused on technology applications and innovation. It is a member of the Marketing and Opinion Research Society of the Philippines and the Philippine Association of National Advertisers.
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